HATCHET : VP Huckabee?
Posted on Thursday, February 1, 2007
Mike Huckabee could be the next president of the United States. Granted, Huckabee is not a frontrunner, but he certainly is a colleague in an elite group of the top 20 people most likely to be the next president. Demographically, Huckabee is nearly the perfect presidential candidate: A Southern Republican governor with social conservative views, but a center-to-right fiscal record with a legitimate “ compassionate conservatism” calling card (think education and health care ).
If Huckabee isn’t at the top of the ticket, considering who the front-runners are in the GOP race, Huckabee could also make a very useful running mate. The South has been the critical foundation of GOP electoral success in 2000 and 2004, and with losses in other parts of the country the Republicans will need to hold onto the South in order to hold onto the White House. Although Huckabee can’t out Bubba the Ultimate Bubba (who now lives in New York, of all places ), he certainly can connect with southern voters, something some of the other front-runners can’t count on.
So how does the thin man stack up against the 2008 GOP competition ?
Sen. John McCain: McCain is the front-runner for 2008, mostly because of his name recognition and his on-and-off love affair with the media. McCain, more than any other Republican, knows how to use the media to his advantage. He has been able to position himself as a maverick Republican, often short-selling his own party to be the dissenting GOP voice in exchange for positive publicity. For the last year, McCain has been attempting to mend fences with the GOP establishment and social conservatives — although McCain is clearly a social moderate on issues like abortion.
If Huckabee was McCain’s VP choice, he would certainly excite a different part of the GOP base. McCain appeals to pragmatists, while Huckabee appeals to religious conservatives. McCain would help the GOP ticket hold onto key southwest states, like his own Arizona, bordering Nevada and New Mexico. A Huckabee VP nod helps keep the South in the red.
In many ways, if Huckabee gets some traction as a presidential candidate (and he very well may ) then McCain’s candidacy is in trouble. Conservatives like McCain for one reason right now — they think he can win in 2008. If Huckabee gets enough play that conservatives think Huckabee has a legitimate shot, Huckabee will peel all the social conservatives away from McCain’s base. And you can’t win the GOP nod without the social conservative vote, even if they are holding their noses.
Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: Most Republicans feel Giuliani is a RINO — Republican In Name Only. Giuliani has street cred for two reasons: He was a no-nonsense mayor who put the polish back on the Big Apple, and he was a strong leader in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. I think Rudy’s candidacy is dead on arrival — especially if New York Sen. Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee. Evangelical Christians will not abide Giuliani for his stance on homosexuals and gays, and Giuliani’s ability to carry his own state is suspect if Hillary is the nominee.
Of course, the same could be said about Huckabee. Arkansas is a lock for Republicans if the Democratic nominee is Barack Hussein Obama or John Edwards. But if Hillary is the nominee, Arkansas is in serious play.
Because Hillary is the front-runner, because she could win both New York and Arkansas, and because they are so far apart on social issues, I can’t imagine any world where you’d see Huckabee and Giuliani on the same ticket.
Former Gov. Mitt Romney: Frankly, I’m surprised that Romney, the one-term governor of Massachusetts, is getting as much play as he is. He is a strange, cacophonous mix of political positions that will likely turn off all the major demographics. He is a pro-choice Mormon from the most liberal state in the country. Again, if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic standard bearer, Romney will not carry his own state. The Democratic establishment, with Sen. Ted Kennedy as its godfather, has a strong grip on the state. If Romney did win the GOP’s nomination, Kennedy, along with John Kerry (the junior senator from Massachusetts ) would campaign hard against him in the general election.
Of course, Huckabee as the GOP’s man also has about zero percent chance of winning in Massachusetts. Huckabee as Romney’s vice president makes a lot of sense, however, because it will help evangelicals reconcile their doubts about Romney’s Mormonism — which many evangelicals (if not most ) view as a negative. And the fine folks of the South would feel a lot better voting for a Yankee like Romney if Huckabee is on the team.
The reality of the GOP race is there is no conservative front-runner. Which means Huckabee has a decent shot at winning the nomination. Dick Morris, the former Clinton advisee and now a GOP-leaning commentator, discounts Huckabee as the possible conservative candidate, but for a trivial reason.
“ But the Republicans have to nominate somebody and the Christian right has to have a candidate. Who will it be ? We don’t have any idea, hence the want ad. Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is articulate, a former Baptist Minister and an innovator. He even lost 100 pounds. But another Arkansas governor ? Give us a break ! ” writes Morris.
If the worst thing Huckabee has going for him is that he was once governor of the same state as Bill Clinton, then his 2008 prospects are better than most.
Lucas Roebuck is a former managing editor of the Northwest Arkansas Times and the Siloam Springs Herald-Leader.
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