COATESVILLE, Pa. — Here’s the choice for working-class voters — including many who were suffering even before the economy tanked — who could decide Tuesday’s Democratic presidential primary in Pennsylvania: A black Chicago senator who graduated from Harvard Law School and is now on the political fast track or a female New York senator who graduated from Yale Law School, married a man who became president and now shares in the $ 109 million they have made since he left the White House.
About a quarter of Pennsylvanians are in blue-collar jobs — including a declining number of factory workers and a rising number of service workers — and their impact on the Democratic primary could exceed that level.
The numbers mean the lunch-bucket vote remains crucial in the state that Barack Obama hopes to make Hillary Clinton’s last stand.
“ In Pennsylvania it’s always important and in a Democratic primary that importance is magnified, ” Chris Borick, director of Muhlenberg College’s Institute of Public Opinion, said of the blue-collar vote. “ And in this particular primary in the Democratic Party it’s an incredibly important constituency. ”
How important ? Nobody can win it without carrying the blue-collar vote, according to Borick.
Clinton and Obama will work to appeal to that demographic.
Voter registration numbers released this week show that Democratic strength has increased, partly due to disillusioned ex-GOPers — including many blue-collar voters — who signed up to vote in the Democratic primary. The voter rolls now include 4. 2 million Democrats, a half-million more than in April 2004 and 300, 000 more than a year ago.
Republican registration is at 3. 2 million, the same as in November 2007 and April 2004.
“ There are significant numbers of Democrats in the state who are blue collar and who are up for grabs, ” said University of Pennsylvania political scientist Donald Kettl, “ and Obama is trying to steal them away from Clinton. ”
Democrats like Keith Gargus, an out-of-work furniture salesman in Coatesville — a city struggling to make the transition from steel town to anything else — do not see much of a working-class hero in either candidate. But Gargus is enthusiastically backing Obama, a candidate whose humble beginnings qualify him as more working class than Clinton.
“ This is an ex-first lady — this is an ex-first lady of a governor — and a senator, an Ivy League lawyer, ” he said. “ This is a person of privilege that is worth $ 100 million and disconnected from workingclass people. I’d like to have the change that falls out of her sofa. ”
Folks like Gargus have it wrong, say folks like Earl Duncan and Mark Semenko, both among the wave of ex-Republicans who switched parties this year. Both are Clinton backers.
“ She is for all Americans, regardless of whatever race or whatever you are, ” said Duncan, a 76-year-old retired railroad worker and Korean War vet who questions Obama’s commitment to Americans.
“ He went to a church for 20 years where the preacher was anti-American and a racist, ” Duncan said, referring to the now-famous comments of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
“ You’ve got to be for the American people, ” Duncan added. “ That’s why we went into service for the Americans. These people that are anti-American — if they had lived under Hitler they would have known how nice it was to be an American. ”
Duncan said he would vote for Republican John McCain over Obama.
Semenko, a 55-year-old architect from West Chester, said Clinton has working-class bona fides, as well as a wealth of experience.
“ The last time I voted for somebody with no experience was George W. Bush, ” Semenko said. “ And I only voted for him once. It’s got to be someone with experience. That’s why I’m for Hillary. ”
The Obama style — something that inspires supporters — is a major turn-off for Semenko.
“ I’ve never liked from day one the way he speaks to people. It’s almost this preacher sort of style that I find demeaning. It’s almost looking down at me, ” he said, praising Clinton’s approach as “ more businesslike. ”
Like Duncan, Semenko said he’d back McCain over Obama.
But Obama-backer Gargus totally buys into the Illinois senator’s change message. Something very basic, Gargus said, has to change.
“ There used to be a job for everybody in this town. … Now there are some jobs (at the steel mill ) and they are good jobs, ” he said. “ But there is no rush hour when they get out of work. ”
Coatesville resident Dave Carr, who dropped by to see Bill Clinton campaign for his wife here Tuesday, is still shopping for a November candidate. As a registered Republican, Carr can’t vote in the Democratic primary. But he might vote for a Democrat presidential candidate — something he’s never done — in November.
The economy has hit Carr, a former homebuilder, hard, forcing him to take a job with a local non-profit organization.
Like many, Carr was attracted to the Obama style. But the attraction wore off about three weeks ago.
“ I’m not finding any substance, ” he said. “ I just don’t find him being genuine. … With Hillary I find more specifics on what she is going to do. ”
Lauraine Acey moved in the other direction, starting as a Clinton backer but moving to the Obama camp.
“ He has lived the workingclass life, ” said Acey a former Verizon worker now serving as assistant pastor at a local Baptist church. “ When you look at his background and see the family out of which he came, these were poor working people. … I listen to the statements about him being elitist. That is so far from the truth. He worked hard to get the scholarships that got him into the schools he attended. Nothing was given to him, and he has made the most of it. ”
Recent polls are all over the board, with many showing Obama closing the large gap Clinton had in recent weeks. But pollster Dick Bennett’s latest numbers show Obama spiraling from even last week to 20 points down in his American Research Group survey completed over the weekend.
Obama’s previous momentum, Bennett said, coincided with the release of Clinton family income tax returns showing that her husband has pulled in $ 109 million since leaving office. It’s a number, Bennett said, that does not quite hit home with blue-collar voters.
But Obama’s ad blitz in Pennsylvania has backfired, according to the interviews done for Bennett’s poll.
“ The race is about him. It’s not about workers in Pennsylvania. At least that’s the way it’s being perceived” by Pennsylvania voters, he said.
Borick sees blue-collar voters as “ a very tough group for (Obama ) to win outright, but if he can win a solid share of those voters he could have the ability to claim it’s a success. ”
Rolling a 37 at an Altoona bowling alley did not help Obama in a demographic that takes its bowling seriously.
“ I’ve had my 6-year-old actually do that, ” Borick said of Obama’s score.
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