COMMENTARY : Blue chips still college football’s best bet
Posted on Friday, September 12, 2008
With the volatility in college football these days, it’s enticing to invest in the hopes and dreams of a team like East Carolina. Especially after the Pirates have stolen the show by knocking off ranked opponents two weeks in a row.
It sure would be great for the game if one of those little engines that could, actually did climb to the top of the Bowl Championship Series mountain. But when you look at what they’re up against, it’s not likely to happen anytime soon.
When it comes to the chase for college football’s Holy Grail, it’s still about the blue-chippers, like No. 1 Southern California and No. 5 Ohio State. Which is why far more stock is invested in their prime-time matchup Saturday in Los Angeles.
Abundantly aware of how smallcap teams generally perform over the season’s long haul, the polls weren’t ready to buy into the Pirates after their 27-22 season-opening victory over Virginia Tech. But on the heels of East Carolina’s dominating 24-3 victory over West Virginia, the Pirates’ stock surged to No. 14 in The Associated Press Top 25.
Still, it’s probably wise to remember how South Florida, South Carolina and Kentucky climbed to the Nos. 2, 6 and 8 spots in the AP poll by the midpoint of last season, only to come crashing down. By season’s end, Kentucky and South Carolina had fallen from the polls altogether.
Last season’s Sugar Bowl matchup between Georgia (10-2 ) and unbeaten Hawaii also provides a reminder of how small-cappers often stack up against the blue-chippers: Georgia 41, Hawaii 10.
But unbeaten Boise State’s incredible 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the 2006-2007 Fiesta Bowl did offer a glimmer of hope to non-BCS teams. At the end of the day, however, Boise (13-0 ) finished no higher than fifth in the final polls.
Now come East Carolina, Brigham Young, Fresno State, Utah... and Rice ? Hey, the Owls have won their first two games for the first time since 2004, thanks to a 22-point rally in the final 6: 28 of their 42-35 victory at Memphis on Saturday. Their stock has risen, but now’s not the time to buy. It’s likely to fall after a trip to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
This columnist advises week traders against buying into No. 21 Fresno State before it hosts No. 10 Wisconsin on Saturday. If the Bulldogs — who never shy away from the big boys — knock off the Badgers, load up. They could run the table.
Hold onto your Utah stock; it’ll keep rising. The No. 22 Utes’ boom or bust game isn’t until Nov. 22 against BYU in Salt Lake City.
As for No. 18 BYU’s stock, it was devalued after the Cougars barely escaped Washington with a 28-27 victory, tainted by an abhorrent unsportsmanlike conduct call. Huskies quarterback Jake Locker was flagged for “throwing the ball high into the air” after scoring a touchdown with two seconds left in the game. The penalty resulted in a 35-yard extra-point kick that was blocked.
The Pacific-10 Conference said officials got the call right. By the letter of the law, that might be true. But there is such a thing as using discretion, which would have been right to do. Even the national coordinator for college football officiating, David Parry, acknowledged that “I think it’s safe to say on emotional moments, officials might become a little more lenient.”
As for those investment strategies, the best buy among small-cappers remains East Carolina. Granted, we’ll have to keep an eye on how the Pirates’ first two opponents perform from here on out. It could be Virginia Tech and No. 25 West Virginia were way overvalued to start the season; the Hokies were No. 17 and the Mountaineers were No. 8. Or, it could be East Carolina is that good.
If you’re a Pirates stockholder, don’t even think about selling, at least not before their Nov. 2 trip to Orlando, Fla., where they’ll battle Central Florida for the Conference USA East Division title. The Knights proved themselves a formidable foe in a 31-24 overtime loss to No. 19 South Florida.
Those Bulls could make everyone Bullish with a victory over No. 13 Kansas tonight in Tampa, Fla.
Some non-BCS stocks are performing well, but if you’re a season-long investor — and not just a week trader — rely on the Standard & Rich index.
Which means, bank on the bluechippers. Minus some whose stock has fallen — like Michigan, Miami, Florida State and Notre Dame. Especially Notre Dame.
The Irish were darn lucky to pull out a 21-13 victory over San Diego State on Saturday in South Bend, Ind. According to oddsmakers, take your pick between the Wolverines and the Irish on Saturday. This columnist takes Michigan.
As for the slugfest in Los Angeles, can the Trojans’ stock go any higher ?
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