Report foretells more Hispanics, elderly in state
Posted on Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Arkansas needs to prepare for major demographic shifts that will place new demands on services as the state’s population gets older and more diverse, according to a report released Tuesday.
The state’s population is expected to grow to 3. 58 million in 2020, up from 2. 83 million in 2007 and 2. 67 million in 2000, according to Arkansas 2020, a legislative study of Arkansas ’ changing population and its future effects on state services.
Between 2000 and 2020, the number of people between ages 60 and 69 is expected to grow 70 percent to 378, 741, and the number of people between ages 70 and 79 will grow 38 percent to 233, 597.
The number of Hispanics in Arkansas is projected to nearly triple from 86, 866 in 2000 to 240, 404 in 2020.
The state needs to prepare for the changes before it’s too late, said David Underwood, associate vice president for academic affairs at Arkansas Tech University and one of the study’s authors.
“We need to make this meteorite move before it gets down to the Earth and hits us,” Underwood said. “That’s what this whole Arkansas 2020 report is all about.” Sen. Shane Broadway, D-Bryant, said the changing demographics will place new demands on all aspects of the state’s infrastructure, from education and social services, to health care and public safety. Broadway said he requested the report three years ago as a way to force legislators and state officials to begin planning for the future.
“A lot of times we’re just thinking about the next session.... What we wanted to do is look at what Arkansas is going to look like several years down the road,” Broadway said.
Researchers presented the results of the Arkansas 2020 report to state legislators Tuesday during a joint meeting of the Senate Children and Youth, and the House Aging, Children & Youth Legislative and Military Affairs committees. The report was completed by January 2007. Broadway said its release was delayed because of its timing at the start of the last legislative session and about the time his father became ill. Charles Dewey Broadway died in October 2007.
The report used 2005 U. S. Census Bureau projections to show what the state will look like in 12 years and asked state agencies to identify the challenges those changes would bring, said Ty Borders, study coordinator and associate professor of health policy and management and epidemiology at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences College of Public Health.
Borders was one of six researchers from five Arkansas universities who spent a year researching and writing the 240-page report.
Broadway said the next step is to develop a plan for how the state will deal with the challenges cited in the report.
Common concerns cited in the Arkansas 2020 report include the need for new or expanded social services to accommodate a growing elderly population and the need for more bilingual workers to help meet the needs of a growing number of Hispanics.
The U. S. Census Bureau projections do not include the number of foreigners who may come illegally to the state, Borders said.
Several state agencies said they don’t have the resources, personnel or technology to meet, monitor or plan for future needs.
“This is a wake-up call to all of us that we need to do something,” said Rep. Linda Pondexter Chesterfield, D-Little Rock. “I think we’re going to have to start insisting that our state agencies do some strategic planning. If they can’t do 15 to 20 years down the road, then maybe five to 10 years.” Both rural and urban parts of the state are expected to grow, Borders said. The population of Northwest Arkansas is projected to grow more than 80 percent over the 20-year period, while the population of Little Rock and North Little Rock is expected to increase about 35 percent. Officials did not provide population numbers during their presentation.
There will be more demand on health-care services with an increase in the prevalence of chronic conditions such as diabetes, hypertension and obesity. The Arkansas Department of Health anticipates a growing emphasis on prevention and management of chronic diseases, a need for more resources to regulate hospitals and nursing homes, and increased monitoring of certain infectious diseases, according to the report.
The Department of Human Services anticipates a need for more services for children and the disabled, and more Spanishspeaking personnel.
The state’s higher-education system is expected to be hit especially hard over the next 12 years as more professors, administrators and university staff members reach retirement age, Underwood said.
Arkansas Tech University in Russellville could lose 84 percent of its current administrators and 39 percent of its faculty by 2020. UAMS could lose 79. 3 percent of its administrators, while the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff could lose all of its administrators and 53 percent of its faculty.
In Arkansas public elementary and secondary schools, more than 45 percent of school administrators and 31 percent of teachers will be eligible to retire by 2020, according to the report.
More than 20 agencies participated in the study, including the state departments of Health, Human Services, Education, Correction, Highway and Transportation, Finance and Administration, and the attorney general’s office.
Sen. Percy Malone, D-Arkadelphia, said it all boiled down to one thing.
“Everything’s going to cost more money,” Malone said. “If we’re going to have to adapt to changing demographics, it’s going to take more money.” The full report is available online at www. uams. edu / coph / reports /.
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