Increase in price of power predicted
Posted on Saturday, July 19, 2008
HOPE — When it comes to energy problems, it’s not just crude-oil prices that have Americans worried these days.
A projected decline in natural gas supplies — driven by its increased use for power generation in place of rejected coal-fired plants and coupled with proposed climate-change laws — threatens to send electricity prices skyward within a decade, according to an April report by the Energy Department.
In turn, the resulting lack of coal plant construction and time it would take to build nuclear-fueled units could culminate in a national power shortage by 2030 where brownouts and blackouts are part of everyday life.
“It’s a train wreck waiting to happen to the U. S. economy,” U. S. Rep. Mike Ross, D-Ark, told about 150 people Friday as a two-day, industry-backed Clean Coal Technology Conference at the University of Arkansas Community College at Hope came to a close.
Ross serves on the House Committee for Energy and Commerce, as well as its Committee for Science and Technology.
“Electricity demand will grow 40 percent by 2030. … You can’t get serious about global warming unless you get serious about nuclear power. But even if you start on those plants now, they won’t be up and running until 2038 — eight years after the start of the predicted electric crisis. That’s why we need clean-coal technology now,” Ross said.
Rather than embark on a strategy that favors one “magic bullet” to America’s future energy needs, a “shotgun” strategy is required, said Nick Brown, president of the Little Rockbased Southwest Power Pool.
Low-emission coal plays a vital role in that mix, along with oil, natural gas, nuclear power, cellulosic ethanol, increased energy efficiency, and renewables such as solar, wind, geothermal and hydroelectric generation.
However, such efforts can no longer be piecemeal or delayed by politics and excessive regulation, said Morry Davis, who heads the national energy efficiency team for the American Association of Blacks in Energy.
While the nation’s economic future hangs in the balance, at extreme risk are families that earn less than $ 30, 000 a year, he said.
They comprise one-fifth of U. S. households, yet devote 20 percent of their budget to energy prices, he said. Families earning less than $ 10, 000 a year — about 8 percent of all households — spend nearly half their income on energy.
“The path forward requires an Apollo-like vision … We need to bring on a new generation of new technologies so we can reduce usage and be better stewards of our resources,” said Davis, referring to the nation’s successful push in the 1960 s to put a man on the moon by the end of that decade.
Without new coal plants equipped with carbon capture and sequestration technologies that still require testing, reserve margins are threatened and the nation’s grid is in trouble, he said.
“Normally it requires about a 15 percent reserve margin. We’re about to go below that. Unless we do something, you’re looking at disrupted mass transit, health concerns, school closures. … All of this is possible if there is no reliable electric grid.” Projects such as the $ 1. 6 billion John W. Turk Jr. coal-fired power plant in Hempstead County have been a rarity in recent years as global-warming concerns have made such projects unpopular with regulators.
Last year, 59 coal-fired projects were canceled, said Sandra Hochstetter, vice president of strategic affairs for the Arkansas Electric Cooperative Corp. and former chairman of the Arkansas Public Service Commission.
Another coal plant was canceled Thursday, reducing what had been 22 coal-fired plants currently on order to 21, said Kenneth J. Nemeth, secretary and executive director of the Southern States Energy Board.
“Reserve margins in some states already are getting close to the breaking point,” he said. “Last summer, the Commonwealth of Virginia had to buy 2, 000 megawatts of additional power. If there had been nobody to buy it from, there would have been rolling blackouts.” Many lawmakers fear that strict cap-and-trade provisions in potential legislation such as the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act could not only force increased electricity costs, but send thousands of jobs overseas to companies with lower energy costs.
One representative of an environmental group says that such concerns are premature.
“It’s really intended to be a starting point, a place where discussion can begin and move forward as all the different sides weigh in,” said Ken Smith, a vice president with the Audubon Society.
While the challenges of a looming electric crisis and coal’s role within it may seem daunting, conference keynote speaker and former House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt offered some optimism Thursday night.
“I’ve seen all the problems. All the mistakes. Legislatures, city councils, Congress — they’re all human institutions. They make every mistake in the book. They’re imperfect,” Gephardt said.
“But the great majesty of this country is we do it in a democracy. If you want to get heard, you will be heard. … This is an awesome country. Being practical, pragmatic, working together, listening and solving problems — we’re going to solve this problem faster than you think.”
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